In-hospital mortality risk stratification in children aged under 5 years with pneumonia with or without pulse oximetry: A secondary analysis of the Pneumonia REsearch Partnership to Assess WHO REcommendations (PREPARE) dataset.

OBJECTIVES: We determined the pulse oximetry benefit in pediatric pneumonia mortality risk stratification and chest-indrawing pneumonia in-hospital mortality risk factors. METHODS: We report the characteristics and in-hospital pneumonia-related mortality of children aged 2-59 months who were included in the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations dataset. We developed multivariable logistic regression models of chest-indrawing pneumonia to identify mortality risk factors. RESULTS: Among 285,839 children, 164,244 (57.5%) from hospital-based studies were included. Pneumonia case fatality risk (CFR) without pulse oximetry measurement was higher than with measurement (5.8%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.6-5.9% vs 2.1%, 95% CI 1.9-2.4%). One in five children with chest-indrawing pneumonia was hypoxemic (19.7%, 95% CI 19.0-20.4%), and the hypoxemic CFR was 10.3% (95% CI 9.1-11.5%). Other mortality risk factors were younger age (either 2-5 months [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 9.94, 95% CI 6.67-14.84] or 6-11 months [aOR 2.67, 95% CI 1.71-4.16]), moderate malnutrition (aOR 2.41, 95% CI 1.87-3.09), and female sex (aOR 1.82, 95% CI 1.43-2.32). CONCLUSION: Children with a pulse oximetry measurement had a lower CFR. Many children hospitalized with chest-indrawing pneumonia were hypoxemic and one in 10 died. Young age and moderate malnutrition were risk factors for in-hospital chest-indrawing pneumonia-related mortality. Pulse oximetry should be integrated in pneumonia hospital care for children under 5 years.

Assembling a global database of child pneumonia studies to inform WHO pneumonia management algorithm: Methodology and applications.

Background: The existing World Health Organization (WHO) pneumonia case management guidelines rely on clinical symptoms and signs for identifying, classifying, and treating pneumonia in children up to 5 years old. We aimed to collate an individual patient-level data set from large, high-quality pre-existing studies on pneumonia in children to identify a set of signs and symptoms with greater validity in the diagnosis, prognosis, and possible treatment of childhood pneumonia for the improvement of current pneumonia case management guidelines. Methods: Using data from a published systematic review and expert knowledge, we identified studies meeting our eligibility criteria and invited investigators to share individual-level patient data. We collected data on demographic information, general medical history, and current illness episode, including history, clinical presentation, chest radiograph findings when available, treatment, and outcome. Data were gathered separately from hospital-based and community-based cases. We performed a narrative synthesis to describe the final data set. Results: Forty-one separate data sets were included in the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations (PREPARE) database, 26 of which were hospital-based and 15 were community-based. The PREPARE database includes 285 839 children with pneumonia (244 323 in the hospital and 41 516 in the community), with detailed descriptions of clinical presentation, clinical progression, and outcome. Of 9185 pneumonia-related deaths, 6836 (74%) occurred in children <1 year of age and 1317 (14%) in children aged 1-2 years. Of the 285 839 episodes, 280 998 occurred in children 0-59 months old, of which 129 584 (46%) were 2-11 months of age and 152 730 (54%) were males. Conclusions: This data set could identify an improved specific, sensitive set of criteria for diagnosing clinical pneumonia and help identify sick children in need of referral to a higher level of care or a change of therapy. Field studies could be designed based on insights from PREPARE analyses to validate a potential revised pneumonia algorithm. The PREPARE methodology can also act as a model for disease database assembly.

Derivation and validation of a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2-59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in 20 countries.

INTRODUCTION: Existing risk assessment tools to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality have shown suboptimal discriminatory value during external validation. Our objective was to derive and validate a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2-59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality across various settings. METHODS: We used primary, baseline, patient-level data from 11 studies, including children evaluated for pneumonia in 20 low-income and middle-income countries. Patients with complete data were included in a logistic regression model to assess the association of candidate variables with the outcome hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality. Adjusted log coefficients were calculated for each candidate variable and assigned weighted points to derive the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations (PREPARE) risk assessment tool. We used bootstrapped selection with 200 repetitions to internally validate the PREPARE risk assessment tool. RESULTS: A total of 27 388 children were included in the analysis (mean age 14.0 months, pneumonia-related case fatality ratio 3.1%). The PREPARE risk assessment tool included patient age, sex, weight-for-age z-score, body temperature, respiratory rate, unconsciousness or decreased level of consciousness, convulsions, cyanosis and hypoxaemia at baseline. The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory value when internally validated (area under the curve 0.83, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.84). CONCLUSIONS: The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory ability for identifying children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in a large, geographically diverse dataset. After external validation, this tool may be implemented in various settings to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality.

Nasopharyngeal Viral and Bacterial Co-Detection among Children from Low- and Middle-Income Countries with and without Pneumonia.

The role of microbial coinfection in the pathogenesis of pneumonia in children is not well known. The aim of this work was to describe the prevalence of microorganism co-detection in nasopharyngeal samples (NPS) of pneumonia cases and control subjects and to study the potential association between nasopharyngeal microorganism co-detection and pneumonia. A case-control study was carried out from 2010 to 2014 in nine study sites located in low- or middle-income countries. The data from 888 children under 5 years of age with pneumonia (cases) and 870 children under 5 without pneumonia (controls) were analyzed. Nasopharyngeal samples were collected; reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) enabled the detection of five bacteria and 19 viruses. Multiple, mixed-effects logistic regression modeling was undertaken to evaluate the association between microorganism co-detection and pneumonia. A single Streptococcus pneumoniae colonization was observed in 15.2% of the controls and 10.1% of the cases (P = 0.001), whereas S. pneumoniae and a single virus co-detection was observed in 33.3% of the cases and in 14.6% of the controls (P < 0.001). Co-detections with rhinovirus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus, human metapneumovirus, and influenza virus were more frequent in the cases compared with the controls (P < 0.001) and were significantly associated with pneumonia in multiple regression analysis. The proportion of single virus detection without bacterial co-detection was not different between cases and controls (13.6% versus 11.3%, P = 0.13). This study suggests that coinfection of S. pneumoniae and certain viruses may play a role in the pathophysiology of pneumonia in children.

External validation of the RISC, RISC-Malawi, and PERCH clinical prediction rules to identify risk of death in children hospitalized with pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: Existing scores to identify children at risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality lack broad external validation. Our objective was to externally validate three such risk scores. METHODS: We applied the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC) for HIV-negative children, the RISC-Malawi, and the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) scores to hospitalized children in the Pneumonia REsearch Partnerships to Assess WHO REcommendations (PREPARE) data set. The PREPARE data set includes pooled data from 41 studies on pediatric pneumonia from across the world. We calculated test characteristics and the area under the curve (AUC) for each of these clinical prediction rules. RESULTS: The RISC score for HIV-negative children was applied to 3574 children 0-24 months and demonstrated poor discriminatory ability (AUC = 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.58-0.73) in the identification of children at risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality. The RISC-Malawi score had fair discriminatory value (AUC = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.74-0.77) among 17 864 children 2-59 months. The PERCH score was applied to 732 children 1-59 months and also demonstrated poor discriminatory value (AUC = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.37-0.73). CONCLUSIONS: In a large external application of the RISC, RISC-Malawi, and PERCH scores, a substantial number of children were misclassified for their risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality. Although pneumonia risk scores have performed well among the cohorts in which they were derived, their performance diminished when externally applied. A generalizable risk assessment tool with higher sensitivity and specificity to identify children at risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality may be needed. Such a generalizable risk assessment tool would need context-specific validation prior to implementation in that setting.

Influenza epidemiology and burden of disease in Mongolia, 2013-2014 to 2017-2018.

BACKGROUND: Mongolia is a vast, sparsely populated country in central Asia. Its harsh climate and nomadic lifestyle make the population vulnerable to acute respiratory infections, particularly influenza. Evidence on the morbidity, mortality and socioeconomic impact of influenza in Mongolia is scarce; however, routine surveillance for influenza-like illness (ILI), severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) and laboratory-detected influenza is conducted. This paper describes the epidemiology of influenza and the estimated burden of influenza-associated illness in Mongolia in the five influenza seasons between 2013-2014 and 2017-2018. METHODS: Demographic and laboratory data from 152 sentinel surveillance sites on all patients who met the case definitions of ILI and SARI between October 2013 and May 2018 were extracted and analysed as described in A Manual for Estimating Disease Burden Associated with Seasonal Influenza. RESULTS: The estimated annual influenza-associated ILI and SARI rates, presented as ranges, were 1279-2798 and 81-666 cases per 100 000 population, respectively. Children aged < 5 years accounted for 67% of all ILI cases and 79% of all SARI cases. The annual specimen positivity for influenza was highest (11-30% for ILI and 8-31% for SARI) for children aged 5- < 15 years and children < 2 years old, respectively. The annual mortality rate due to pneumonia and SARI was highest among children aged < 2 years (15.8-54.0 per 100 000 population). Although the incidence of influenza-associated ILI and SARI was lowest for people aged 365 years, the mortality rate due to pneumonia and SARI (1.2-5.1 per 100 000) was higher than that for those aged 15-64 years. CONCLUSION: The estimated influenza-associated ILI and SARI incidence rates are high in Mongolia, and children, especially those aged < 5 years, have the highest influenza-associated burden in Mongolia. These findings provide evidence for decision-makers in Mongolia to consider targeted influenza vaccination, particularly for children.

Measles and rubella IgG seroprevalence in persons 6 month-35 years of age, Mongolia, 2016.

BACKGROUND: In 2015-2016, Mongolia experienced an unexpected large measles outbreak affecting mostly young children and adults. After two nationwide vaccination campaigns, measles transmission declined. To determine if there were any remaining immunity gaps to measles or rubella in the population, a nationally representative serosurvey for measles and rubella antibodies was conducted after the outbreak was over. METHODS: A nationwide, cross-sectional, stratified, three-stage cluster serosurvey was conducted in November-December 2016. A priori, four regional strata (Ulaanbaatar, Western, Central, and Gobi-Eastern) and five age strata (6 months-23 months, 2-7 years, 8-17 years, 18-30 years, and 31-35 years) were created. Households were visited, members interviewed, and blood specimens were collected from age-appropriate members. Blood specimens were tested for measles immunoglobulin G (IgG) and rubella IgG (Enzygnost® Anti-measles Virus/IgG and Anti-rubella Virus/IgG, Siemens, Healthcare Diagnostics Products, GmbH Marburg, Germany). Factors associated with seropositivity were evaluated. RESULTS: Among 4598 persons aged 6 months to 35 years participating in the serosurvey, 94% were measles IgG positive and 95% were rubella IgG positive. Measles IgG seropositivity was associated with increasing age and higher education. Rubella IgG seropositivity was associated with increasing age, higher education, smaller household size, receipt of MMR in routine immunization, residence outside the Western Region, non-Muslim religious affiliation, and non-Kazakh ethnicity. Muslim Kazakhs living in Western Region had the lowest rubella seroprevalence of all survey participants. CONCLUSIONS: Nationally, high immunity to both measles and rubella has been achieved among persons 1-35 years of age, which should be sufficient to eliminate both measles and rubella if future birth cohorts have ≥ 95% two dose vaccination coverage. Catch-up vaccination is needed to close immunity gaps found among some subpopulations, particularly Muslim Kazakhs living in Western Region.

Serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae in Children Aged <5 Years Hospitalized With or Without Pneumonia in Developing and Emerging Countries: A Descriptive, Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND: Improving knowledge regarding Streptococcus pneumoniae distribution in pneumonia cases is important to better target preventive and curative measures. The objective was to describe S. pneumoniae serotypes in children with or without pneumonia. METHODS: It was a case-control study carried out in 8 developing and emerging countries between 2010 and 2014. Cases were children aged <5 years admitted to the hospital for pneumonia. Controls were children admitted for surgery or routine outpatient care. RESULTS: In nasopharyngeal samples, S. pneumoniae were detected in 68.2% of the cases and 47.5% of the controls (P < .001). Nasopharyngeal carriage was associated with a higher risk of being a case in 6/8 study sites (adjusted odds ratio ranged from 0.71 [95% confidence interval [CI], .39-1.29; P = .26] in India [Pune/Vadu] to 11.86 [95% CI, 5.77-24.41; P < .001] in Mongolia). The 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) serotypes were more frequently detected in cases with nasopharyngeal carriage (67.1%) than in controls with nasopharyngeal carriage (54.6%), P < .001. Streptococcus pneumoniae was detected in blood by polymerase chain reaction in 8.3% of the cases. Of 34 cases with an S. pneumoniae serotype detected in blood, 27 (79%) had the same serotype in the nasopharyngeal sample. CONCLUSIONS: The results confirm the assumption that the isolate carrying or causing disease in an individual is of the same serotype. Most serotypes independently associated with nasopharyngeal carriage or pneumonia are covered by PCV13, suggesting that increased PCV coverage would reduce the burden of S. pneumoniae-related pneumonia.

Comparative global epidemiology of influenza, respiratory syncytial and parainfluenza viruses, 2010-2015.

OBJECTIVES: To improve our understanding of the global epidemiology of common respiratory viruses by analysing their contemporaneous incidence at multiple sites. METHODS: 2010-2015 incidence data for influenza A (IAV), influenza B (IBV), respiratory syncytial (RSV) and parainfluenza (PIV) virus infections were collected from 18 sites (14 countries), consisting of local (n = 6), regional (n = 9) and national (n = 3) laboratories using molecular diagnostic methods. Each site submitted monthly virus incidence data, together with details of their patient populations tested and diagnostic assays used. RESULTS: For the Northern Hemisphere temperate countries, the IAV, IBV and RSV incidence peaks were 2-6 months out of phase with those in the Southern Hemisphere, with IAV having a sharp out-of-phase difference at 6 months, whereas IBV and RSV showed more variable out-of-phase differences of 2-6 months. The tropical sites Singapore and Kuala Lumpur showed fluctuating incidence of these viruses throughout the year, whereas subtropical sites such as Hong Kong, Brisbane and Sydney showed distinctive biannual peaks for IAV but not for RSV and PIV. CONCLUSIONS: There was a notable pattern of synchrony of IAV, IBV and RSV incidence peaks globally, and within countries with multiple sampling sites (Canada, UK, Australia), despite significant distances between these sites.

The genetic history of admixture across inner Eurasia.

The indigenous populations of inner Eurasia-a huge geographic region covering the central Eurasian steppe and the northern Eurasian taiga and tundra-harbour tremendous diversity in their genes, cultures and languages. In this study, we report novel genome-wide data for 763 individuals from Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Mongolia, Russia, Tajikistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan. We furthermore report additional damage-reduced genome-wide data of two previously published individuals from the Eneolithic Botai culture in Kazakhstan (~5,400 BP). We find that present-day inner Eurasian populations are structured into three distinct admixture clines stretching between various western and eastern Eurasian ancestries, mirroring geography. The Botai and more recent ancient genomes from Siberia show a decrease in contributions from so-called 'ancient North Eurasian' ancestry over time, which is detectable only in the northern-most 'forest-tundra' cline. The intermediate 'steppe-forest' cline descends from the Late Bronze Age steppe ancestries, while the 'southern steppe' cline further to the south shows a strong West/South Asian influence. Ancient genomes suggest a northward spread of the southern steppe cline in Central Asia during the first millennium BC. Finally, the genetic structure of Caucasus populations highlights a role of the Caucasus Mountains as a barrier to gene flow and suggests a post-Neolithic gene flow into North Caucasus populations from the steppe.

Discrepancies between self-reported tick bites and evidence of tick-borne disease exposure among nomadic Mongolian herders.

Twenty-six per cent of Mongolians live pastoral lifestyles, increasing their likelihood of exposure to ticks and placing them at a higher risk for contracting tick-borne diseases (TBDs). Anaplasma spp. and Rickettsia spp. have been identified in ticks, livestock and humans in Mongolia, but no known qualitative research has been conducted investigating the association between nomadic herder characteristics, tick bite history and exposure to TBDs. To better understand the association between self-reported tick bites and symptoms versus actual exposure to TBDs, this study paired serological data with 335 surveys administered to Mongolian herders, ages 12-69, from 2014 to 2015. Logistic regression results identified no significant associations between reported tick bites or symptoms with serological evidence of Anaplasma spp. and Rickettsia spp. controlling for age, gender and aimag. Among the 335 respondents who were seropositive to either Anaplasma spp. or Rickettsia spp., 32.9% self-reported experiencing abnormal symptoms such as redness, inflammation, headache, arthritis or fever after being bitten. Alternatively, 17.3% (58/335) of individuals reported experiencing symptoms following a tick bite in instances where serological results indicated no exposure to Anaplasma spp. or Rickettsia spp. Results also identified inconsistencies in reporting and seroprevalence among different age groups, with children having the highest reporting and treatment seeking rates but low levels of exposure in comparison with other groups. While survey results showed that individuals were aware of peak tick seasons and tick species that inhabit specific areas, 58% of heads of households (49/84) were unaware that ticks can cause disease in livestock or dogs. This study suggests that herders are an at-risk population in Mongolia with gaps in awareness of TBD risk. Increased surveillance paired with focused outreach to prevent TBDs targeted to the herder population is encouraged.

Burden of Influenza in Less Than 5-Year-Old Children Admitted to Hospital with Pneumonia in Developing and Emerging Countries: A Descriptive, Multicenter Study.

This descriptive 4-year study reports the proportion of detection of influenza viruses in less than 5-year-old children hospitalized for pneumonia in eight developing and emerging countries and describes clinical and microbiological characteristics of influenza-related pneumonia cases. Hospitalized children presenting radiologically confirmed pneumonia aged 2-60 months were prospectively enrolled in this observational standardized study. Mean proportion of isolated influenza virus was 9.7% (95% confidence interval: 7.9-11.8%) among 888 pneumonia children analyzed, with moderate heterogeneity between countries-ranging from 6.2% in Cambodia to 18.8% in Haiti. The clinical characteristics of children with influenza-related pneumonia were not substantially different from those of other pneumonia cases. Influenza A H1N1-related pneumonia cases appeared as more severe than pneumonia cases related to other strains of influenza. Streptococcus pneumoniae was detected more often in blood samples from influenza-related cases than in those without detected influenza viruses (19.7% versus 9.5%, P = 0.018). Influenza-related pneumonia is frequent among children less than 5 years old with pneumonia, living in developing and emerging countries. Influenza might be a frequent etiologic agent responsible for pneumonia or a predisposing status factor for pneumococcal-related pneumonia in this population.

Microorganisms Associated With Pneumonia in Children <5 Years of Age in Developing and Emerging Countries: The GABRIEL Pneumonia Multicenter, Prospective, Case-Control Study.

Background: Pneumonia, the leading infectious cause of child mortality globally, mainly afflicts developing countries. This prospective observational study aimed to assess the microorganisms associated with pneumonia in children aged <5 years in developing and emerging countries. Methods: A multicenter, case-control study by the GABRIEL (Global Approach to Biological Research, Infectious diseases and Epidemics in Low-income countries) network was conducted between 2010 and 2014 in Cambodia, China, Haiti, India (2 sites), Madagascar, Mali, Mongolia, and Paraguay. Cases were hospitalized children with radiologically confirmed pneumonia; controls were children from the same setting without any features suggestive of pneumonia. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from all subjects; 19 viruses and 5 bacteria were identified by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction. Associations between microorganisms and pneumonia were quantified by calculating the adjusted population attributable fraction (aPAF) after multivariate logistic regression analysis adjusted for sex, age, time period, other pathogens, and site. Results: Overall, 888 cases and 870 controls were analyzed; ≥1 microorganism was detected in respiratory samples in 93.0% of cases and 74.4% of controls (P < .001). Streptococcus pneumoniae, Mycoplasma pneumoniae, human metapneumovirus, rhinovirus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenza virus 1, 3, and 4, and influenza virus A and B were independently associated with pneumonia; aPAF was 42.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 35.5%-48.2%) for S. pneumoniae, 18.2% (95% CI, 17.4%-19.0%) for RSV, and 11.2% (95% CI, 7.5%-14.7%) for rhinovirus. Conclusions: Streptococcus pneumoniae, RSV, and rhinovirus may be the major microorganisms associated with pneumonia infections in children <5 years of age from developing and emerging countries. Increasing S. pneumoniae vaccination coverage may substantially reduce the burden of pneumonia among children in developing countries.

Screening and management of viral hepatitis and hepatocellular carcinoma in Mongolia: results from a survey of Mongolian physicians from all major provinces of Mongolia.

BACKGROUND: According to Globocan, Mongolia has the highest worldwide hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence (78.1/100 000, 3.5× higher than China). AIMS AND METHODS: We conducted an anonymous survey of physicians from major provinces who attended an educational liver symposium, analysing their demography, practice, knowledge, perceptions and proposed solutions. Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate OR relating demography and practice factors with higher provider knowledge and improvement. RESULTS: Of the 121 attendees, 44-95 (36-79%) responded to each question. Most were female (87%), young (79% age <50), subspecialists (81%), university-affiliated (74%), and practised in urban areas (61%). The mean pretest and post-test scores per physician were 60.4±20.4 and 65.6±21.3, with no observed significant predictors for baseline knowledge or improvement. Most (>80%) noted that <50% of patients who need hepatitis or HCC screening receive it. The main perceived barriers to screening were inability to pay for tests, lack of guidelines and poor patient awareness. Hepatitis treatment rates were low; 83% treated hepatitis C virus in <10 patients in the past year, and 86% treated hepatitis B virus in <10 patients/month. Treatment barriers were multifactorial, with cost as a principal barrier. Proposed solutions were universal screening policies (46%), removal of financial barriers (28%) and provider education (20%). CONCLUSIONS: Physicians from major regions of Mongolia noted low screening for viral hepatitis, even lower treatment rates, financial barriers and the need for increased educational efforts. We advocate broad-based medical education tailored to local needs and based on needs assessment and outcome measurements.

Genomic analyses inform on migration events during the peopling of Eurasia.

High-coverage whole-genome sequence studies have so far focused on a limited number of geographically restricted populations, or been targeted at specific diseases, such as cancer. Nevertheless, the availability of high-resolution genomic data has led to the development of new methodologies for inferring population history and refuelled the debate on the mutation rate in humans. Here we present the Estonian Biocentre Human Genome Diversity Panel (EGDP), a dataset of 483 high-coverage human genomes from 148 populations worldwide, including 379 new genomes from 125 populations, which we group into diversity and selection sets. We analyse this dataset to refine estimates of continent-wide patterns of heterozygosity, long- and short-distance gene flow, archaic admixture, and changes in effective population size through time as well as for signals of positive or balancing selection. We find a genetic signature in present-day Papuans that suggests that at least 2% of their genome originates from an early and largely extinct expansion of anatomically modern humans (AMHs) out of Africa. Together with evidence from the western Asian fossil record, and admixture between AMHs and Neanderthals predating the main Eurasian expansion, our results contribute to the mounting evidence for the presence of AMHs out of Africa earlier than 75,000 years ago.

Global Role and Burden of Influenza in Pediatric Respiratory Hospitalizations, 1982-2012: A Systematic Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The global burden of pediatric severe respiratory illness is substantial, and influenza viruses contribute to this burden. Systematic surveillance and testing for influenza among hospitalized children has expanded globally over the past decade. However, only a fraction of the data has been used to estimate influenza burden. In this analysis, we use surveillance data to provide an estimate of influenza-associated hospitalizations among children worldwide. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We aggregated data from a systematic review (n = 108) and surveillance platforms (n = 37) to calculate a pooled estimate of the proportion of samples collected from children hospitalized with respiratory illnesses and positive for influenza by age group (<6 mo, <1 y, <2 y, <5 y, 5-17 y, and <18 y). We applied this proportion to global estimates of acute lower respiratory infection hospitalizations among children aged <1 y and <5 y, to obtain the number and per capita rate of influenza-associated hospitalizations by geographic region and socio-economic status. Influenza was associated with 10% (95% CI 8%-11%) of respiratory hospitalizations in children <18 y worldwide, ranging from 5% (95% CI 3%-7%) among children <6 mo to 16% (95% CI 14%-20%) among children 5-17 y. On average, we estimated that influenza results in approximately 374,000 (95% CI 264,000 to 539,000) hospitalizations in children <1 y-of which 228,000 (95% CI 150,000 to 344,000) occur in children <6 mo-and 870,000 (95% CI 610,000 to 1,237,000) hospitalizations in children <5 y annually. Influenza-associated hospitalization rates were more than three times higher in developing countries than in industrialized countries (150/100,000 children/year versus 48/100,000). However, differences in hospitalization practices between settings are an important limitation in interpreting these findings. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza is an important contributor to respiratory hospitalizations among young children worldwide. Increasing influenza vaccination coverage among young children and pregnant women could reduce this burden and protect infants <6 mo.

Burden of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection in Pregnant Women and Infants Under 6 Months in Mongolia: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Pregnant women and infants under 6 months are at risk of influenza-related complications. Limited information exists on their community burden of respiratory viruses. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This prospective, observational open cohort study was conducted in Baganuur district, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia during 2013/14 and 2014/15 influenza seasons. Influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory infection (sARI) were identified by follow-up calls twice a week. For those identified, influenza and respiratory syncytical virus (RSV) were tested by point-of-care test kits. We calculated overall and stratified (by trimester or age group) incidence rates (IR) and used Cox proportional hazard regression for risk factor analyses. Among 1260 unvaccinated pregnant women enrolled, overall IRs for ILI, sARI and influenza A were 11.8 (95% confidence interval (C.I):11.2-12.4), 0.1 (95%C.I:0.0-0.4), and 1.7 (95%C.I:1.5-1.9) per 1,000person-days, respectively. One sARI case was influenza A positive. IRs and adjusted hazard ratios (Adj.HR) for ILI and influenza A were lowest in the third trimester. Those with co-morbidity were 1.4 times more likely to develop ILI [Adj.HR:1.4 (95%C.I:1.1-1.9)]. Among 1304 infants enrolled, overall ILI and sARI IRs were 15.2 (95%C.I:14.5-15.8) and 20.5 (95%C.I:19.7-21.3) per 1,000person-days, respectively. From the tested ILI (77.6%) and sARI (30.6%) cases, the overall positivity rates were 6.3% (influenza A), 1.1% (influenza B) and 9.3% (RSV). Positivity rates of influenza A and RSV tend to increase with age. sARI cases were 1.4 times more likely to be male [Adj.HR:1.4 (95%C.I:1.1-1.8)]. Among all influenza A and RSV positive infants, 11.8% and 68.0% were respectively identified among sARI hospitalized cases. CONCLUSION: We observed low overall influenza A burden in both groups, though underestimation was likely due to point-of-care tests used. For infants, RSV burden was more significant than influenza A. These findings would be useful for establishing control strategies for both viruses in Mongolia.

The genetic legacy of the expansion of Turkic-speaking nomads across Eurasia.

The Turkic peoples represent a diverse collection of ethnic groups defined by the Turkic languages. These groups have dispersed across a vast area, including Siberia, Northwest China, Central Asia, East Europe, the Caucasus, Anatolia, the Middle East, and Afghanistan. The origin and early dispersal history of the Turkic peoples is disputed, with candidates for their ancient homeland ranging from the Transcaspian steppe to Manchuria in Northeast Asia. Previous genetic studies have not identified a clear-cut unifying genetic signal for the Turkic peoples, which lends support for language replacement rather than demic diffusion as the model for the Turkic language's expansion. We addressed the genetic origin of 373 individuals from 22 Turkic-speaking populations, representing their current geographic range, by analyzing genome-wide high-density genotype data. In agreement with the elite dominance model of language expansion most of the Turkic peoples studied genetically resemble their geographic neighbors. However, western Turkic peoples sampled across West Eurasia shared an excess of long chromosomal tracts that are identical by descent (IBD) with populations from present-day South Siberia and Mongolia (SSM), an area where historians center a series of early Turkic and non-Turkic steppe polities. While SSM matching IBD tracts (> 1cM) are also observed in non-Turkic populations, Turkic peoples demonstrate a higher percentage of such tracts (p-values ≤ 0.01) compared to their non-Turkic neighbors. Finally, we used the ALDER method and inferred admixture dates (~9th-17th centuries) that overlap with the Turkic migrations of the 5th-16th centuries. Thus, our results indicate historical admixture among Turkic peoples, and the recent shared ancestry with modern populations in SSM supports one of the hypothesized homelands for their nomadic Turkic and related Mongolic ancestors.

Deep phylogenetic analysis of haplogroup G1 provides estimates of SNP and STR mutation rates on the human Y-chromosome and reveals migrations of Iranic speakers.

Y-chromosomal haplogroup G1 is a minor component of the overall gene pool of South-West and Central Asia but reaches up to 80% frequency in some populations scattered within this area. We have genotyped the G1-defining marker M285 in 27 Eurasian populations (n= 5,346), analyzed 367 M285-positive samples using 17 Y-STRs, and sequenced ~11 Mb of the Y-chromosome in 20 of these samples to an average coverage of 67X. This allowed detailed phylogenetic reconstruction. We identified five branches, all with high geographical specificity: G1-L1323 in Kazakhs, the closely related G1-GG1 in Mongols, G1-GG265 in Armenians and its distant brother clade G1-GG162 in Bashkirs, and G1-GG362 in West Indians. The haplotype diversity, which decreased from West Iran to Central Asia, allows us to hypothesize that this rare haplogroup could have been carried by the expansion of Iranic speakers northwards to the Eurasian steppe and via founder effects became a predominant genetic component of some populations, including the Argyn tribe of the Kazakhs. The remarkable agreement between genetic and genealogical trees of Argyns allowed us to calibrate the molecular clock using a historical date (1405 AD) of the most recent common genealogical ancestor. The mutation rate for Y-chromosomal sequence data obtained was 0.78×10-9 per bp per year, falling within the range of published rates. The mutation rate for Y-chromosomal STRs was 0.0022 per locus per generation, very close to the so-called genealogical rate. The "clan-based" approach to estimating the mutation rate provides a third, middle way between direct farther-to-son comparisons and using archeologically known migrations, whose dates are subject to revision and of uncertain relationship to genetic events.